Toronto Real Estate Now Expected to Have Biggest Year in Market History in 2021

As home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) continue to outpace new listings, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) has revised its 2021 sales forecast and average listing price, with the expectation that they will both rise even higher — to record levels.

TRREB released its initial forecast for 2021 in conjunction with its annual Market Year in Review and Outlook report. The outlook for 2021 called for 105,000 transactions with an average selling price of $1,025,000.

The board says this forecast was released as the regional economy continued to improve, and very low borrowing costs were anticipated to continue to fuel strong demand — though this demand was expected to slow during the year due to stalled population growth.

Considering the record Q1-2021 sales result, TRREB has revised its 2021 sales forecast and anticipates the year will end with 115,000 transactions — 10,000 more than it originally forecast. With year-over-year sales growth continuing to outpace new listings growth, the forecast average selling price has also been revised upward to $1,070,000, a $45,000 increase.

Additionally, the new forecast comes as Toronto moves towards implementing a tax on vacant homes, excluding principal residences. TRREB says it has worked closely with City staff, calling for evidence-based decision-making to ensure that the tax meets its policy objectives of improving rental housing supply and ensuring that appropriate exemptions are provided.